Lions vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown

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“Thursday Night Football” looks like, surprisingly, a great game this week. 

The Detroit Lions (2-1) battle the Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Lambeau Field, and the Lions are slight road favorites. 

The Lions have been favorites in Green Bay only twice this century, in 2012 and 2017.

Detroit won, 30-17, in 2017, but lost, 45-41, in 2012. 

Unfortunately, as a gambling man, I have no idea how this game will play out from a side or total perspective.

But I decided to dive into a market I’m not as familiar with – the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market. 

I dug deep and found a few ATSers for “Thursday Night Football.”

Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer  – Jayden Reed (+370, FanDuel)

There are only two NFL wide receivers with seven red-zone targets this season: Tyreek Hill and Jayden Reed. 

Reed has earned those seven targets over the past two weeks, picking up three in Week 2 against Atlanta and four in Week 3 against New Orleans.

The rookie wide receiver from Michigan State has built immediate red-zone chemistry with Jordan Love. 

However, this could also be a natural progression of playing time. 

Reed saw 52 snaps in Week 3 after combining for 60 in Weeks 1 and 2.

He has 20 targets across three weeks, tied for the most on the team. 

Love is looking Reed’s way, and he’s getting opportunities in the most important part of the field. 

He can clearly make the tough catch, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him used in more goal-to-go situations. 

But, thanks to his speed, Reed can also get these looks in scoring territories. 

Of course, Reed also plays primarily from the slot, meaning he’ll be available on short-yardage crosser routes near the goalline. 

All in all, he’s a versatile weapon getting deserved looks in touchdown territory. 

I expect that to continue, and I’m betting accordingly. 

For what it’s worth, CJ Gardner Johnson’s pectoral injury hurts Detroit’s secondary depth. That could result in pushing the rookie Brian Branch or the underperforming Jerry Jacobs to cover Reed, which would be a huge advantage. 

I also don’t expect wideout Christian Watson to play on Thursday night, as he’s still nursing a hamstring injury. He’s listed as questionable, but I think it’s doubtful.


Jordan Love
Jordan Love led the Packers from a big deficit in Week 3.
AP

Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Jordan Love (+500, PointsBet)

Running back Aaron Jones is also listed as questionable for Thursday’s matchup with a hamstring injury. I would also say it’s doubtful he plays on a short week. 

That would mean the Packers are down two of their top weapons, one out wide and one in the backfield.

How might head coach Matt LaFleur respond? 

Why not lean on your young dual-threat quarterback option? 

Jordan Love hasn’t gotten a designed red-zone rush yet, but his rushing usage popped last week. 

After recording two rushing attempts in Week 1 and three in Week 2, Love picked up nine in Week 3, finishing with 40 rushing yards and this read-option score. 

Considering the lack of scoring personnel, I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaFleur ask Love to pull off the same moves Thursday Night. 

Also, for what it’s worth, left tackle David Bakhtiari is out for this matchup. Any added pressures on Love could lead to more scrambles, and one in the red zone could lead to a touchdown. 

Betting on the NFL?

Lions Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Amon-Ra St. Brown (+145, BetRivers)

Only one Detroit wide receiver has seen a red-zone target in each of the first three games, and that’s St. Brown.

Of course, that’s to be expected when you’re the team’s most prolific receiver. Nobody on the Lions can touch his 181 snaps (17 more than the next Detroit pass catcher) or 28 targets (15 more than the next Detroit pass catcher). 

As a result, St. Brown is getting touchdown-scoring opportunities. He’s already converted one, and I’m willing to bet he converts another on “Thursday Night Football.”

Additionally, top Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable for this game with a back injury. He would almost certainly draw the St. Brown assignment if healthy, so his absence would be huge for Amon-Ra touchdown ticket holders. 

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