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So, Jim Harbaugh finally broke through.
He’s beaten Ohio State in back-to-back years, won the Big Ten in back-to-back years, and clinched a College Football Playoff appearance in back-to-back years.
Can Harbaugh and Big Blue make it a three-peat?
The stars are aligning.
By ESPN’s SP+ numbers, Michigan returns the fifth-most production in the nation, including the best running back duo in the nation (Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards), a top-five offensive line, potential First-Team All-Big Ten quarterback JJ McCarthy, and six of the top seven defensive tacklers.
The Action Network’s Collin Wilson tells me that Michigan returns more than 73% of the offensive and defensive production.
Phil Steele’s Experience metric projects Michigan as the most experienced team in the conference and the seventh-most nationally.
All this from a two-time defending conference champion.
This roster is loaded with talented, experienced upperclassmen and is led by a star quarterback.
McCarthy is the X-factor.
He has an accurate arm (21 TDs, 5 INTs last year) and can move the ball with his legs as well as anyone.
| 2023 Michigan Wolverines odds |
|---|
| To win the College Football National Championship (+1000, Bet365) |
| To win the Big Ten Conference (+180, BetMGM) |
| To win the Big Ten East (+140, BetRivers) |
| Win total: Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105): Over (-125, Caesars) |
I hope McCarthy takes a step forward in the upcoming season, becoming a true Heisman contender.
He has the support staff to make the jump.
Michigan also brings back both coordinators, so there’s continuity between the roster and the coaching staff (the defense may improve in Jesse Minter’s second year as DC).
I also wouldn’t worry about Harbaugh’s potential four-game suspension.
That would come at the beginning of the season, and Michigan’s schedule goes East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.
Moreover, the entirety of the schedule is pretty straightforward.
Michigan is projected as a double-digit favorite in 10 games.
So, exactly how many games can we expect Michigan to win in 2023?
Vegas oddsmakers have set the total at 10.5, slightly juiced to the over (-115 at BetMGM).
Do we bet on either side?
Ultimately, this win total will come down to Michigan’s Week 11 matchup at Penn State and Week 13 matchup vs. Ohio State.
Win one of those, and Michigan over 10.5 wins should cash.
I am exceedingly high on Penn State in the upcoming season, which will boast the best all-around defense in college football and a bevy of skill-position weapons.
However, the Nittany Lions still need quarterback prospect Drew Allar to live up to expectations.
He’s the highest-rated quarterback recruit in program history, but he’s only thrown 60 passes at the FBS level (completing 35 with four touchdowns and no picks).
Betting on College Football?
Meanwhile, I’m exceedingly low on Ohio State in the upcoming season, who are working on replacing their offensive coordinator, quarterback and three offensive line starters.
I’m confident Michigan can at least split those matchups.
The Action Network’s Analytics team makes this Win Total exactly 11, so over 10.5 at relatively low juice is worth a wager.
The play: Michigan over 10.5 wins
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