Don’t overreact to these players’ hot, cold starts

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Things are not always what they seem.

A firefly is not fly, it’s a beetle. A tomato is not a vegetable, it’s a fruit. A bald eagle is not bald. LeBron James is not the GOAT, Michael Jordan is.

All Roto Rage is trying to point out is this: The baseball season is a little more than a week old, and not every hot or cold start we’ve seen thus far is as it seems.

Who was the most added player in ESPN leagues this week? If you guessed 34-year-old Adam Duvall, a career .232 hitter, you’d be correct.

Duvall entered Friday leading the majors in RBIs (12), runs (eight) and WAR (0.8) for the Red Sox. He ranked second in homers (three), OPS (1.577) and slugging percentage (1.042), was fourth in batting average (.458) and ninth in on-base percentage (.536).

It is a red-hot start for Duvall, but believing the veteran is suddenly a .458 hitter or will maintain his 14.3 percent strikeout rate is about as likely as John Ritter and Don Knotts coming back from the dead for a “Three’s Company” reboot.

Duvall has finished a season with a batting average higher than .249 once  in his career, and that was when he hit .267 for the Braves in 2019 … when he played in 41 games. He has never had a strikeout rate below 25.8 percent, so it is hard to believe he won’t start whiffing more at some point. The other number that sticks out is this: .533. That is Duvall’s unsustainably high BABIP, which indicates luck has been on his side over the first week-plus of the season.


Boston Red Sox' Adam Duvall rounds third after his three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Thursday, April 6, 2023, in Detroit.
Adam Duvall, a career .233 hitter, is having a hot start to the season.
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

Does Duvall offer any future fantasy value? Yes, especially in the power department. Fenway Park is a great fit for his pull-side heavy towering homers, and it also doesn’t hurt that he should continue to get steady playing time while hitting in the middle of Boston’s lineup.

The key with Duvall is tempering your expectations. We’ve seen what kind of player the 2016 All-Star can be, and it is not a .458 hitter who leads the league in multiple categories.

A look at some other hot and cold starts:

Kansas City’s Vinnie Pasquantino is off to a slow start, going  3-for-21 (.143) with no homers, two RBIs and a .470 OPS in his first seven games. It is not the start fantasy managers were hoping for, but it is early, and his .176 BABIP is a good indication things will go his way.

Just be patient. Remember, after hitting .191 with two homers, three RBIs, 11 strikeouts and a .612 OPS over his first 18 games last year, Pasquantino hit .328 with eight homers, 23 RBIs, a 23-26 strikeout-walk rate and .904 OPS over his next 54 games.


Vinnie Pasquantino has hit just 3-for-21 (.143) with no homers, two RBIs and a .470 OPS in his first seven games.
Vinnie Pasquantino has hit just 3-for-21 (.143) with no homers, two RBIs and a .470 OPS in his first seven games.
Getty Images

Like Duvall, Toronto third baseman Matt Chapman is not a .481 hitter and will not be striking out in just 17.2 percent of his at-bats this year (his career mark is 26.9 percent). His .591 BABIP indicates he will cool off, but there is a lot to like about the 29-year-old. His average exit velocity ranked third in the majors, his hard-hit rate ranked sixth and his barrels per plate appearance rate was fourth. He also is hitting clean up for a loaded Blue Jays lineup, so there should be a nice middle ground he can find and finally return to his 2019 All-Star form.

Milwaukee’s Brian Anderson was the third-most added player in ESPN leagues this week, as he has hit .500 with three homers, 10 RBIs, seven runs and a .1621 OPS over his first six games. His .545 BABIP indicates this is all a mirage, so just run with his hot streak for as long as it lasts.

Cleveland’s Josh Bell was the fourth-most dropped first baseman in ESPN leagues this week after hitting .091 with one RBI, a .367 OPS and 24.1 percent strikeout rate over his first six games. It is too early to panic as he is getting acclimated with a new team and new environment. His .125 BABIP is a good indication things will get better.


Cleveland's Josh Bell was the fourth-most dropped first baseman this week in ESPN leagues.
Cleveland’s Josh Bell was the fourth-most dropped first baseman this week in ESPN leagues.
AP

Don’t panic with Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. You drafted him with a high  pick for a reason. Hitting .154 in seven games is not what you want to see, but the 22-year-old is hitting the ball hard, and his .150 BABIP indicates a lot of bad luck. The same advice can be given for Baltimore youngster Gunnar Henderson: Be patient.

Big Hits

Jorge Mateo SS, Orioles

Entered Friday tied for the second most stolen bases (four) in the majors while hitting .313 with two homers, five RBIs, six runs and a 1.109 OPS.

Jesus Luzardo SP, Marlins

Has struck out 31.3 percent of the batters he has faced in his first two starts and has a 17.4 percent swinging-strike rate. He owns a 0.71 ERA and a  0.93 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .163 against him.


Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) pitches against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at loanDepot Park.
Luzardo boasts a 0.71 ERA as a starting pitcher for the Marlins this season.
Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Bryan Reynolds OF, Pirates

Leading the majors in homers entering the weekend, and was 10-for-24 (.417) with seven RBIs, six runs and a 1.444 OPS over his first six games.

Pablo Lopez SP, Twins

Owns a 0.73 ERA, a 36.4 percent strikeout rate and 16.8 percent swinging-strike rate in his first two starts. Opponents are hitting .128 against him.

Big Whiffs

Zac Gallen SP, D’backs

Had the fourth-worst ERA (7.59) after his first two starts, while striking out 8.44 per nine and walking 3.38 per nine. He has allowed 1.69 homers per nine and opponents are hitting .289 against him.

Max Muncy 2B/3B, Dodgers

After hitting .196 in 2022, he was 3-for-23 (.130) with one homers, one RBI, 12 strikeouts and a .520 OPS over his first six games.


Los Angeles Dodgers' Max Muncy watches his infield ground ball during the third inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday, April 6, 2023, in Phoenix.
Max Muncy’s batting average has dropped during the start of the season.
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Miles Mikolas SP, Cardinals

Despite his 11.57 K/9 and 0.96 BB/9, he owns a 9.64 ERA and opponents are .404 against him over his first two starts.

Nick Castellanos OF, Phillies

Had the worst strikeout rate (48 percent) in the majors entering the weekend, and was hitting .182 with no homers and a .598 OPS.

Check Swings

  • Not only did the Guardians’ Myles Straw enter the weekend tied with Gleyber Torres for the league lead in stolen bases (five), but he was hitting .364 with six runs, a 20 percent walk rate and .517 on-base percentage.
  • Through two starts, Lance Lynn has allowed a league-worst 10 earned runs over 10 innings (9.00 ERA) for the White Sox. He is walking 6.30 per nine innings and opponents are hitting .300 against him.
  • Jarred Kelenic had an amazing spring (.353, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 1.095 OPS), but he was 3-for-15 (.200) with no homers, RBIs or runs, and a .517 OPS over his first five games for the Mariners. Further proof spring stats mean nothing.
  • After going 3-for-4 with three homers, eight RBIs and three runs on April 1, the Dodgers’ Trayce Thompson was 0-of-8 with four strikeouts and a .111 OPS over his next four games.
  • Jonathan India is off to a fast start for the Reds, possibly giving fantasy managers some hope. He was 7-for-18 (.389) with one homer, two RBIs, seven runs scored, one stolen base and a 1.167 OPS over his first five games. He had a 13.6 percent walk rate and 9.1 percent strike rate. His .400 BABIP indicates some early luck, but it is still a good sign of things to come for the second baseman.

Team name of the week

Betts, Bass and Yoan

Submitted by Steve Babyak

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