Don’t grab too many receivers too early

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If you are putting in the time to properly prepare for your upcoming fantasy football draft, then you should be well-versed in some of the recent trends we are witnessing.

Tandem backfields, potential hold-outs and just the general injury history of running backs has created a seismic shift in how people are drafting wide receivers.

Five years ago, up to 10 of the first 12 picks were running backs. Three months ago, you could flip that to 10 wide receivers.

Today, it is probably more of a 60-40 split favoring receivers, but it is important to note that with more leagues moving to starting three receivers and a Flex, early picks on wideouts is where it’s at.


Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley
Getty Images

Before you commit, however, to overlooking Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley for A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb, understand that the receiver position is loaded with talent, and there are receiving options to be had in the middle-to-late rounds.

If you have a working knowledge of NFL coaching systems, you know you can find a strong No. 1 receiver such as the Broncos’ Courtland Sutton in the seventh or eighth round.

The recent hamstring injury to Jerry Jeudy probably has more people looking at Sutton, but he has burned enough fantasy managers in the past that few people have him on their radar.

But with Joe Lombardi serving as the new offensive coordinator in Denver, Sutton is lined up for a heavy target share.

Look to past teams for which Lombardi served as the coordinator and you will understand that his scheme funnels targets to the X-receiver.

In New Orleans, it was Marques Colston and Michael Thomas. When he went to the Chargers two years ago, the target-share for Mike Williams spiked.

Now in Denver, Sutton serves as the X-receiver, and though there will still be room for targets to go to the other pass-catchers, Sutton is expected to see the lion’s share.

You can also look deeper into the draft at the Packers’ Romeo Doubs, whose fantasy ADP is around the 10th round.

Matt LaFleur’s coaching scheme features traditional West Coast-style passing — which means short, high-percentage passes to move the chains.

Aaron Rodgers would routinely change the plays at the line, but with Jordan Love under center, we should see this system in its purest form.

That favors Doubs much more than Christian Watson, who is more of a stretch-the-field, deep threat. Doubs is a clean route-runner and will excel with an abundance of targets.

You don’t need to overload your early picks with elite receivers in order to win. In fact, we will probably see more first-round running backs in championships than we will see first-round receivers.

The position is flush with talent, so if you know how to unearth true value like you will see from Sutton and Doubs, you will be able to focus on position scarcity earlier and have a much stronger team.

Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to Fantasy-Alarm.com for all your fantasy football advice.



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