Here are the picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL wild-card games. Home team in CAPS.

Sunday

BILLS (-13) over Dolphins

Scant mystery here. This is the warm-up act for bigger and better things to come … given that Miami is no longer currently able to deploy a healthy quarterback with the marked promise of Tua Tagovailoa. With Tagovailoa out of commission, the Fish are now deploying QB No. 3, rookie Skylar Thompson — and Thompson’s not quite fully operational, with a bum ankle.

With the Bills still yet to capture a Super prize (currently perching on the 0-4 run they put together during the Jim Kelly glory days), Buffalo’s focus is obviously there, and given their marked edge at multiple positions in most matchup analyses, expect Josh Allen and the Bills to take this next step — but it’s virtually certain the path gets more difficult from here. So far, so good.

Bills, 37-16.

Giants (+3) over VIKINGS

Speaking of teams boasting a lengthy history but still without a Super Bowl prize to call their own, heerrreesss… Minnesota, which has disappointed in its own four big-game appearances. This is in large part understandable, when you recall that the Vikings have given up more points than they’ve put up during the course of the regular season, though they did manage a narrow win over the Giants during the holidays.

But … what that wrinkle might serve to do would be to establish an added revenge incentive for Big Blue, and to provide yet another such motivation for the Giants to generate another significant effort. That is asking for further competitive difficulties for the wagering favorite in the equation.

The Vikings, bless their hearts, historically tend to lose this kind of game. Maybe this tilt will be different, but if you’re backing the chalk, you’re taking the worst of it.

Giants, 24-21

BENGALS (-8.5) over Ravens

This is the toughest side evaluation/balancing act of the day, given that we harbor scant doubt Cincinnati is quite likely to capture the flag on the scoreboard, and an adjusted line move upward could make some losers out of opening-line winners.

With that in mind, the Ravens have a sustained habit of throwing their best punches in the opening rounds, leaving Bengals backers open to the potential dreaded backdoor cover. Even if you’re confident Cincy is most likely to succeed, that doesn’t guarantee a cover of some distended number, even if you’re facing Anthony Brown under center for the visitors. Remember, this favorite under Joe Burrow is comfortable when in control, and is used to winning without covering chalky numbers.

Bengals, 24-13

Monday
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Cowboys

This is precisely the sort of game that the Cowboys have a sustained history of losing (competing in the first round of the league’s postseason matchups). Worse for Jerry Jones … they’re going up against QB Tom Brady as a home underdog.

We readily acknowledge that once the regular season started, the Bucs met the best of it when managing to catch big-name teams on subpar weeks. So long as Tampa Bay remains dangerous when facing big names in Florida, we’re not going out of our way to fade them.

The plain fact that Dallas is consistently overbet in the marketplace often takes the Cowboys completely off the table if you insist (quite rightly, from a players’ perspective) that you strive to do everything you can to obtain fair value.

Buccaneers, 24-20

Last week: 6-8
Regular season: 120-110-3